光伏行业的又一大利好---储能

1：主要目标：

a）到2025年实现从商业化初期向规模化发展转变，装机规模30GW以上，在推动能源领域碳达峰碳中和过程中发挥显著作用；

b）2030年实现全面市场化发展，成为能源领域碳达峰碳中和关键支撑之一。

2：政策方向：

a）发电侧：健全“新能源+ 储能”项目激励机制，包括利用小时，并网时序等等；研究建立储能准入条件，包括参与中长期交易、现货和辅助市场服务；

b）电网侧：建立电网侧独立储能容量电价机制，研究探索将电网替代性储能设施成本收益纳入输配电价回收；

c）用户侧：完善峰谷电价；

d）推动锂电池等相对成熟新型储能技术成本持续下降和商业化规模应用；

3：其他：

a）产业链保障：提升储能核心技术装备自主可控水平；

b）定位：提出明确储能市场主体地位；

c）大力推进电源侧、积极推动电网侧、积极支持用户侧。

     从征求意见稿可以分析出：储能行业将从发电侧开始爆发，随后电网侧和户用侧依次进入爆发期。此前制约行业发展的主要因素是经济性：发电侧配置储能，本质是增加初装成本却无法提升收益（不包括有地补的省份）；电网侧同样如此，电网企业配置意愿不强；用户侧经济性普遍有待提升。征求意见稿重点在于解决储能经济性，包括发电侧参与中长期交易、提供现货和辅助市场服务、利用小时与并网顺序的倾斜，用户侧扩大峰谷价差等。此外，电网侧提出将电网替代性储能纳入输配电成本，可能会极大程度提升电网侧配置储能的积极性，预计相关政策落地后，这一环节发展可能会大超预期。新型电力系统的发展是一个系统工程，难度主要就卡在电网端，目前已经看到电网积极性可能会发生重大变化。长期来看，机构已经预计2025年储能市场空间可能会超1500亿规模，若在此期间内储能成本进一步下降，预计更多需求将被激发。这都将对以光伏和风电为主的新能源发电，起到极大的推动作用。

1. Main Objectives:  

 

A) To achieve a transformation from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development by 2025, with an installed capacity of more than 30GW, and play a significant role in promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the energy sector;  

 

B) To achieve comprehensive market-oriented development by 2030 and become one of the key supports for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the energy sector.  

 

2. Policy Direction:  

 

A) Power generation side: improve the incentive mechanism of "new energy + energy storage" project, including utilization hours, grid connection timing, etc.;   Study the establishment of access conditions for energy storage, including participation in medium - and long-term transactions, spot and ancillary market services;  

 

B) On the grid side: establish an independent electricity price mechanism for energy storage capacity on the grid side, and study and explore the inclusion of the cost and benefit of alternative energy storage facilities in the electricity transmission and distribution price recovery;  

 

C) User side: improve peak-valley electricity price;  

 

D) Promote continuous cost reduction and commercial-scale application of relatively mature new energy storage technologies such as lithium batteries;  

 

3: Others:  

 

A) Industrial chain guarantee: improve the autonomous and controllable level of core technology and equipment of energy storage;  

 

B) Positioning: propose to define the dominant position of energy storage market;  

 

C) Vigorously promote the power supply side, actively promote the grid side and actively support the user side.  

 

It can be analyzed from the draft that the energy storage industry will explode from the power generation side, and then the power grid side and the household side will enter the outbreak period in turn.   Previously, the main factor restricting the development of the industry was economy: the configuration of energy storage at the power generation side essentially increased the initial installation cost but failed to increase the revenue (excluding provinces with land compensation);  The same is true for the grid side, where the grid enterprises are not willing to allocate;  The user-side economy generally needs to be improved.  The draft focuses on solving the economy of energy storage, including the participation of the power generation side in medium - and long-term transactions, the provision of spot and auxiliary market services, the inclination of utilization hours and grid connection order, and the widening of the peak-valley price gap on the user side.  In addition, the power grid side proposes to include alternative energy storage in transmission and distribution costs, which may greatly enhance the enthusiasm of energy storage configuration on the power grid side. It is expected that after the implementation of relevant policies, the development of this link may greatly exceed expectations.   The development of a new type of power system is a systematic project, and the difficulty is mainly stuck in the grid side. At present, we have seen that the enthusiasm of the grid may change significantly.   In the long term, the energy storage market has been projected to exceed $150 billion by 2025, and more demand is expected to be stimulated if storage costs fall further during that period.   All these will give a great boost to new energy generation, mainly photovoltaic and wind power.