划重点!!! 2021年光伏储能行业报告

1.2 十四五期间，预计国内光伏年均新增装机76-86GW

我国将2030年非化石能源占比目标提升至25%（此前2030年非化石能源占比目标为20%）。2019年我国非化石能源占 比已经达到了15.3%，预计2020年可以提升至16%；在此基础上2030年非化石能源占比目标达到25%，平均每年提升幅 度为0.9pct。考虑水电、核电的资源储备、建设周期及地理限制条件后，我们认为2030年的光伏、风电累计装机合理区间应该在 1800-2000GW左右，即未来十年风电+光伏年均装机规模达到130GW-150GW区间，其中十四五期间的合理年均新增装 机规模为108-124GW，十五五期间的合理年均装机规模为155-178GW。十三五期间这一数值为55GW左右。

1.3 储能两大根本驱动→七种场景

储能的本质驱动来自于新型电力系统所需灵活性资源及用户侧的低成本高质量用电需求，具体可分为发电侧、电网侧 和用户侧共七种场景（互有交叉）。

发电侧：平抑发电波动，维持电网平衡，以新能源配套储能为主。

电网侧：以调峰调频等辅助服务维持电网平衡需求为主，另外还有延缓电网投资需求。

1.2 During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is estimated that 76-86GW will be newly installed annually in China  

The country has raised its non-fossil energy share target to 25% by 2030, up from 20% previously.  In 2019, the share of non-fossil energy in China reached 15.3 percent, and is expected to increase to 16 percent in 2020.  On this basis, the proportion of non-fossil energy in 2030 will reach 25%, with an average annual increase of 0.9 PCT.  After considering the resource reserve, construction cycle and geographical constraints of hydropower and nuclear power, we believe that the reasonable range of cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in 2030 should be about 1800-2000GW, that is, the average annual installed capacity of wind power and PV in the next ten years should reach 130GW-150GW.  Among them, the reasonable average annual new installation scale during the 14th Five-Year plan is 108-124GW, and the reasonable average annual installation scale during the 15th five-year plan is 155-178GW.  During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, this value is about 55GW.  

1.3 Two fundamental drives of energy storage → Seven scenarios  

The essential drive of energy storage comes from the flexible resources required by the new power system and the low cost and high quality power demand of the user side, which can be divided into seven scenarios (intersecting each other) of the generation side, the grid side and the user side.  

Generation side: to smooth the fluctuation of power generation, maintain the balance of power grid, and mainly use new energy to support energy storage.  

On the power grid side, auxiliary services such as peak regulation and frequency modulation are mainly used to maintain the balance demand of the power grid, and the demand for delaying the investment of the power grid is also delayed.  

User side: Domestic energy storage is mainly industrial and commercial energy storage, while overseas energy storage includes household energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage.  

1.4 The global installed capacity is expected to reach 196GWh in 2025  

Installed capacity forecast: In 2021, the global installed capacity of new electrochemical energy storage is 9.69GW, with a year-on-year growth of 100%, and in 2025, the new capacity can reach 74.77GW.  

Driving factors: In 2020, China is mainly driven by the new energy power generation side and the power grid side, and the industrial and commercial users are slightly delayed in the short term but safe in the long term due to the impact of recent fire accidents.   Both large projects and user-side energy storage in the U.S. are already market-driven and are expected to more than double in 2021.  Europe, Australia, Japan, South Africa, South America and other places are maintaining a rapid growth of home energy storage.  

Yihua Shares: photovoltaic bracket rookie, automotive connector into the harvest period  

2.1 Since its establishment, the company has continuously expanded and segmented areas horizontally and upgraded product structure vertically  

Since its establishment in 1995, Yihua has expanded from communication connectors, consumer electronics and machines to automotive connectors and photovoltaic supports through endogenous growth and extension acquisition.  

2.2 The company's products mainly include connectors and photovoltaic supports  

The main products of Yihua are connectors and photovoltaic tracking brackets;  Among them, connectors include communication connectors, consumer electronics connectors, automotive connectors, and so on. The main products of optical volt bracket are structural systems (rotatable bracket).  

2.3 Photovoltaic tracking support is one of the components of photovoltaic power generation system  

Photovoltaic power generation system includes photovoltaic module, inverter, photovoltaic support and other core equipment and other accessories.   As the "skeleton" of the power plant, the performance of the photovoltaic scaffold directly affects the power generation efficiency and investment income of the photovoltaic power plant.  The upstream of the PV bracket is aluminum alloy, steel and other non-metallic raw materials, the middle reaches is the design and production of the PV bracket, and the downstream is the application of the PV bracket, namely the PV power station.  

2.4 Automotive connector business has entered the strategic harvest period and become a new driver of performance  

The company automobile connector early development investment gradually complete, business has begun to enter the harvest period.  The early company's automotive connector business losses, mainly due to the initial investment in the construction of larger spending.   In the first half of 2021, Suzhou Eno's revenue was 33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.8%, and its net profit was 720,000 yuan, gradually turning a loss into a profit (a loss of 6 million yuan in the same period last year).  

Products: The company's automotive connector business covers new energy vehicles and ASDS autonomous driving plate, the current products include vehicle high-speed connector HSD series, BMS new energy connector, body ECU/VCU, automotive glass lift connector, etc.  

Customers: The company has obtained more than 200 million yuan of projects from BYD, Geely, GKN, Huawei, Dongfeng, CRRC, Ambofu and other big customers, and is gradually increasing the volume, and has won a good reputation from customers.   The future automotive connector business is expected to continue to benefit from the downstream customer order volume, scale effect significantly enhanced.  

Kehua Data: IDC transformation is successful, and inverter business layout is expanded again  

3.1 IDC strategic transformation is successful, and the new energy business sets sail  

The company was founded in 1988 in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province, focusing on power electronic technology research and development and equipment manufacturing;   In 1999, it completed the shareholding system transformation and formed the layout of high-tech enterprises in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Shenzhen.  In 2010, the company was listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange and entered a new stage of development.   In 2016, it began to build its own data center in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to promote the nationwide distribution of cloud basic services.  Relying on the advantages of UPS technology and customer resources, the company realizes the strategic transformation of IDC and accelerates the expansion of new energy business.  Currently, the company's main businesses are data centers, new energy and smart power (63%, 13% and 22% of revenue in the first half of 2021, respectively).  

3.2 IDC core assets are still scarce  

Industry digitalization and cloud-driven traffic on enterprises grow rapidly, and IDC has long-term high growth: massive data storage and computing drive up the demand for data center construction. According to the data of China Information and Communication Institute, the revenue of IDC industry in China from 2018 to 2020 is CAGR of 31.55%.   The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Three-year Action Plan for the Development of New Data Centers (2021-2023). In the past three years, the average annual growth rate of the rack size of data centers in China has been maintained at about 20%.  First-tier cities gather a large number of Internet customers, cloud service providers and financial customers. IDC in the core city has the advantages of short distance, low delay, convenient management and maintenance, and the demand keeps growing at a high speed.  However, due to the strict control of PUE and the restriction of land and power indicators, the effective supply is insufficient.  According to the estimation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the expected number of available data center racks in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2021 is less than the number of racks required in 2020, and the scarcity of IDC assets in core areas is still strong.  

3.3 Kehua Data's IDC business is deeply bound to Tencent  

The company has built 7 data centers in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, operates more than 20 data centers in more than 10 cities nationwide, and owns about 30,000 cabinets. It plans to add more than 10,000 self-built cabinets every year from 2021 to 2023.   At present, the company's on-board rate is about 71%, much higher than the average level of data center utilization;   On the one hand, the company's data centers are located in the core areas of first-tier cities. On the other hand, with the customer resources of UPS business, the company has the leading sales capacity.  

The company is deeply bound to Tencent, and has carried out in-depth cooperation in product development, EPC construction, operation and maintenance, cloud service sales and other aspects.   Co-developed T-Block products have been widely used in Tencent's data centers;  Participated in the planning, design, construction and operation of three customized data centers: Guangzhou Keyun, Zhangjiakou Tengzhi and Qingyuan Guoteng.   Recently, the company has signed an annual framework agreement with Tencent for the construction of 2.2 data centers in Qingcheng, Qingyuan, Guangdong. The subsequent stable bidding of Tencent provides strong support for the order growth of the company.  

04 Invek: precision temperature control leader, continue to lead the energy storage temperature control market  

4.1 Multi-field expansion of precision temperature control faucet  

The company is a leading domestic supplier of precision temperature control and energy saving solutions and products, committed to providing equipment cooling solutions for cloud computing data centers, server rooms, communication networks, power grids, energy storage systems and other fields.   In 2016, the company was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.  In 2018, the company acquired Shanghai Ketai, entered the rail transit train air conditioning business, and carried out the research and development of electronic cooling products;  In 2019, the air environment machine was launched to layout the field of indoor healthy environment.  

4.2 Expansion of precision temperature control faucet in multiple fields  

The company's business is divided into room temperature control and energy saving (application fields include data center, etc.), cabinet temperature control and energy saving (application fields include energy storage power station, wireless communication base station, etc.), rail transit train air conditioning and service, bus air conditioning, and others (including electronic heat dissipation, healthy environment, etc.).   From 2016 to 2020, the company recorded a CAGR of 32.25% in operating revenue and 21.76% in net profit attributable to its parent.  

In the first half of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 981 million yuan, up 46.31 percent year on year, and net profit attributable to its parent reached 107 million yuan, up 40.81 percent year on year.   Among them, the new infrastructure drove the large-scale construction of data centers in 2020, and the company's multi-year project intensive acceptance confirmed that the revenue of this business increased by 75.67% year-on-year to 530 million yuan.  Benefiting from the rapid growth of energy storage applications, the revenue of cabinet temperature control energy-saving products increased by 61.68% year-on-year to 292 million yuan.  The peak of 5G construction in 2021 was concentrated in the second half of the year (the peak in 2020 was in the second quarter), and the seasonal difference caused the year-on-year decline in the revenue of communication base stations.  

4.3 Carbon Neutrality has stringent requirements on data center energy consumption  

China's data center green development process increasingly accelerated.  Before 2013, the average PUE of China's VLDCS exceeded 1.7, and by the end of 2019, the average PUE of China's VLDCS was 1.46.  In the context of carbon neutrality, the Three-year Action Plan for the Development of New Data Centers (2021-2023) plans that by the end of 2023, the PUE of new data centers of large size or above will be reduced to below 1.3, and the PUE will be reduced to below 1.25 in cold and cold areas.  

About 43 percent of the energy consumption in a data center is generated by refrigeration equipment.  IT equipment energy consumption and power supply loss are difficult to reduce. To reduce PUE, reduce cooling energy consumption.   Indirect evaporative cooling can effectively realize the utilization of natural cold source, and is the most effective natural cold source utilization scheme at present. Compared with the traditional chilled water system, it can reduce the refrigeration energy consumption by about 30%.  

4.4 Indirect evaporative cooling leader  

The company has provided a large number of energy-efficient cooling products and systems for the large-scale data centers of Tencent, Alibaba, Qinhuai Data, Wanguo Data, Data Harbor, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom and other users.   The company is the mainstream supplier of indirect evaporative cooling for large-scale commercial use in China. It is also the first company to introduce this technology into the large-scale commercial use of data centers, and keeps the first share in the industry.  Indirect evaporative cooling has expanded the company's effective demand by about three times compared to traditional chilled water cooling systems, and the company has benefited greatly from the increased penetration rate of this technology (currently about 10%-20%).  

Liquid cooling: Facing the heat dissipation of data centers with high thermal density and high energy efficiency, liquid cooling technology is on the rise.   China's liquid-cooled data center market size penetration will grow to 25% in 2022-2025, according to estimates from CCID Consultants.  Invek's full-chain liquid cooling solution has achieved batch application of 200kW for a single cabinet. The fully liquid-cooled cold plate solution has refreshed the highest thermal density and completed commercial use in ultra-high computing power scenarios.   The company already has the capability to provide end-to-end full chain products and solutions for several Internet leading enterprises to provide trials and enter the small-scale application stage. 

用户侧：国内以工商业储能为主，海外包括户用储能和工商业储能。

1.4 2025年全球新增装机有望达196GWh

装机预测：2021年全球新增电化学储能装机9.69GW，同比增长100%，2025年当年新增可达74.77GW。

驱动因素：中国2020年主要由新能源发电侧、电网侧推动，工商业用户侧受近期火灾事故影响短期内略有迟滞但长期无虞。美国的大型项目及用户侧储能均已实现市场化驱动，2021年有望翻倍以上。欧洲、澳洲、日本、南非、南美等地的家庭储能正保持快速增长态势。

2.1 成立以来，公司不断横向拓展细分领域、纵向升级产品结构

1995年成立以来，意华通过内生增长、外延并购等，从通讯连接器、消费电子连机器，拓展至汽车连接器和光伏支架领域。

2.2 公司的产品，主要包括连接器和光伏支架

意华股份的主要产品为连接器和光伏跟踪支架；其中，连接器包括通讯连接器、消费电子连接器、汽车连接器等，光 伏支架主要产品为结构系统（可旋转支架）。

2.3 光伏跟踪支架是光伏发电系统的组成部分之一

光伏发电系统包括光伏组件、逆变器、光伏支架等核心设备及 其他配件。光伏支架作为电站的“骨骼” ，其性能直接影响光伏电站的发电效率及投资收益。光伏支架上游为铝合金，钢材以及其他非金属原材料，中游为光伏支架的设计和生产，下游 是光伏支架的运用即光伏电站。

2.4 汽车连接器业务进入战略收获期，成为业绩新驱动

公司汽车连接器的前期开发投入逐渐完备，业务已经开始进入收获期。前期公司的汽车连接器业务接连亏损，主要是由于 业务初期的投入建设支出较大等。2021年上半年，苏州远野收入0.33亿元、同比增长109.8%，实现净利润72万元、逐渐扭亏为盈（去年同期亏损600万元)。

产品：公司汽车连接器业务覆盖新能源汽车及ASDS自动驾驶板块，目前的产品包括车载高速连接器HSD系列，BMS新能源连接器、车身 ECU/VCU、汽车玻璃升降连接器等。

客户：公司已获得 BYD、吉利、GKN、华为、东风、中车、安波福等大客户逾2亿元的项目，正在逐步放量中，且获得了客户的良好口碑。未来汽车连接器业务有望持续受益于下游客户的订单放量，规模效应显著增强。

3.1 IDC战略转型成功，新能源业务扬帆起航

公司前身于1988年在福建漳州成立，专注于电力电子技术研发与设备制造；1999年完成股份制改造，形成厦门、漳州 和深圳三地高新技术企业布局。2010年公司在深圳证券交易所挂牌上市，发展迈入新阶段。2016年开始在北上广自建 数据中心，推进云基础服务全国布局。公司依托UPS业务的技术和客户资源优势，实现IDC战略转型，加速拓展新能 源业务。目前，公司的主营业务为数据中心、新能源和智慧电能（2021年上半年的营收占比分别为63%、13%、 22%）。

3.2 IDC核心资产仍稀缺

行业数字化和企业上云驱动流量高速增长，IDC具备长期高成长性：海量数据的存储和计算推升数据中心的建设需求， 根据中国信通院数据，2018-2020年我国IDC行业收入CAGR为31.55%。工信部发布《新型数据中心发展三年行动计划 （2021-2023）》，近三年全国数据中心机架规模年均增速保持在20%左右。一线城市聚集了大量的互联网客户、云服务商和金融客户，核心城市IDC具有距离近、时延低、管理维护便利等优势，需求持续高速增长。而受PUE严控、土地和电力指标限制等因素影响，有效供给不足。根据工信部测算，2021年北京、 上海、广深的预计可用数据中心机架数均小于2020年需求机架数，核心区域IDC资产稀缺性仍强。

3.3 科华数据IDC业务与腾讯深度绑定

公司于北京、上海、广州建成7大数据中心，在全国10多个城市运营20多个数据中心，拥有机柜数量约3万架，2021- 2023年计划每年新增自建机柜1万个以上。目前公司的上架率约为71%，远高于数据中心利用率平均水平；一方面，公司数据中心均处于一线城市核心区域，另一方面，凭借UPS业务的客户资源，公司销售能力领先。

公司深度绑定腾讯，从产品开发、EPC建设运维、云服务销售等方面开展了深度合作。共同开发的T-block产品已广泛 应用于腾讯的数据中心；参与规划设计、建设及运营了广州科云、张家口腾致、清远国腾三大定制化数据中心。近期 公司与腾讯在广东清远清城2.2栋数据中心的建设签订了年度框架协议，后续腾讯稳定的招投标为公司订单增长提供有力支撑。

4.1 精密温控龙头多领域拓展

公司是国内领先的精密温控节能解决方案和产品提供商，致力于为云计 算数据中心、服务器机房、通信网络、电力电网、储能系统等领域提供 设备散热解决方案。2016年公司在深交所成功上市；2018年公司收购上海科泰，进入轨道交通列车空调业务，开展电子散热产品研发；2019年 推出空气环境机，布局室内健康环境领域。

4.2 精密温控龙头多领域拓展

公司将业务划分为机房温控节能（应用领域包括数据中心等）、机柜温控节能（应用领域包括储能电站、无线通信基 站等） 、轨道交通列车空调及服务、客车空调、其他（包括电子散热、健康环境等）。2016-2020年，公司营业收入 CAGR为32.25%，归母净利润CAGR为21.76%。

2021年上半年，公司实现营收9.81亿元，同比增长46.31%，实现归母净利润1.07亿元，同比增长40.81%。其中，新基建驱动2020年数据中心大规模建设，公司跨年度项目密集验收确认，该业务营收同比增长75.67%至5.30亿元。受益于储能应用的高速增长，机柜温控节能产品营收同比增长61.68%至2.92亿元。2021年的5G建设高峰集中在下半年（2020年高峰 在二季度），季节性差异造成通信基站营收同比下降。

4.3 碳中和对数据中心能耗要求更加严苛

我国数据中心绿色发展进程日益加快。2013年以前，全国超大型 数据中心的平均PUE超过1.7，到2019年底，全国超大型数据中心 平均PUE为1.46。碳中和背景下，《新型数据中心发展三年行动计 划（2021-2023年）》计划到2023年底，新建大型及以上数据中心 PUE降低到1.3以下，严寒和寒冷地区力争降低到1.25以下。

在数据中心的能耗构成中，约43%由制冷设备产生。IT设备能耗和供电损耗较难节约，为降低PUE，减少制冷能耗势在必行。间接蒸发冷却能有效地实现自然冷源利用，是当前最有效的自然冷源利用方案，与传统冷冻水系统比可将制冷能耗降低30%左右。

4.4 间接蒸发冷却领导者

公司已为腾讯、阿里巴巴、秦淮数据、万国数据、数据港、中国移动、中国电信、中国联通等用户的大型数据中心提供了大量高效节能的制冷产品及系统。公司是国内间接蒸发冷却大规模商用的主流供应商，也是最早将该技术导入数据中心规模商用的公司，持续保持行业第一份额。相对于传统的冷冻水型制冷系统，间接蒸发冷却使得公司的有效需求扩张了3倍左右，公司深度受益于该技术的渗透率提升（目前约 10%~20%）。

液冷：面对高热密度和超高能效的数据中心散热，液冷技术方兴未艾。根据赛迪顾问专家估算，在2022-2025年，中国液冷数据中心市场规模渗透率将增长至25%。英维克全链条液冷解决方案已实现单机柜200kW批量应用，完全液冷的冷板方案刷新最高热密度，并在超高算力场景完成商用；公司已经具备提供端到端全链条产品和方案的能力， 为几家互联网头部企业提供试验并进入小规模应用阶段。